DEVORA
DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland:
Auckland is a vital link in New Zealand's economy, and the city and surrounding region are being developed as internationally desirable places to live and work. However, Auckland is built on a volcanic field (a group of small volcanic cones, lava flows or craters over a wide area) and is also at risk from ash fall from eruptions at large volcanoes in the central north island and Taranaki. Our understanding of the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is incomplete; previous studies have been largely ad hoc, with no integration into over-arching hazard and risk assessments and follow-through to end users.
The seven-year DEVORA research programme, which grew out of the 'Auckland: It's Our Volcano' project, is aimed at a much-improved assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the Auckland metropolitan area, and will provide a strategy and rationale for appropriate risk mitigation. This will be based on increasing our understanding of the AVF through an integrated, multi-disciplinary, multi-agency study.
The official launch of the project and the first DEVORA research forum took place in November 2008. Please also visit our Publications and Research Forum pages for more information and resources.
Theme 1
Geological model
Key questions:
- Where is the magma coming from?
- Why does it leave its source?
- What controls the path of magma in the crust?
- Where will the magma reach the surface?
- What is the crust made of (underpinning data set)?
- Why is the most recent eruption (Rangitoto) the largest?
- How fast will magma travel to the surface?
- When will we detect the ascending magma?
Theme 2
Probabilistic volcanic hazard model
Key questions:
- What is the distribution in time of past eruptions affecting Auckland?
- What is the likelihood and size of future eruptions affecting Auckland?
- What are likely styles and hazards of future eruptions?
- Where are we in the lifespan of the Auckland Volcanic Field?
- How do we usefully calculate probabilistic volcanic hazard for Auckland?
- What is the probabilistic volcanic hazard?
- How intensive should the monitoring be to provide adequate warning of an AVF eruption?
Theme 3
Risk and social model for Auckland
Key questions:
- Who and what are exposed to volcanic hazards in Auckland?
- How will each hazard affect people and infrastructure?
- How will people and organisations cope in an eruption?
- What are the flow-on effects nation-wide from an eruption affecting Auckland?
- How can we calculate risk to people and infrastructure?
- What are the risks to people and infrastructure?
- How can these risks be reduced?
- How can people and organisations prepare to respond effectively to warnings?
Contact Us
DEVORA is a collaborative project involving the IESE at the University of Auckland and GNS Science. Support is provided by these organizations, the Auckland Regional Council and the Earthquake Commission. To find out more, please contact the management team.
DEVORA Management Team (l-r): Elaine Smid (IESE), Gill Jolly (GNS Science), Jan Lindsay (IESE), Graham Leonard (GNS Science), Hannah Brackley (GNS Science). Photo by Kathryn Robinson.